Prognostic nomograms for predicting long-term overall survival in spindle cell melanoma: a population-based study.

Background: There are few research findings on the survival prognosis of spindle cell melanoma (SCM), which is an unusual kind of melanoma. The purpose of this study was to develop a thorough nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with SCM and to assess its validity by comparing it with the conventional American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was searched, and 2,015 patients with SCM were selected for the analysis. The patients were randomly divided into training (n = 1,410) and validation (n = 605) cohorts by using R software. Multivariate Cox regression was performed to identify predictive factors. A nomogram was established based on these characteristics to predict OS in SCM. The calibration curve, concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision-curve analysis were utilized to assess the accuracy and reliability of the model. The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were also applied in this model to evaluate its differences with the AJCC model. Results: The developed nomogram suggests that race, AJCC stage, chemotherapy status, regional node examination status, marital status, and sex have the greatest effects on OS in SCM. The nomogram had a higher C-index than the AJCC staging system (0.751 versus 0.633 in the training cohort and 0.747 versus 0.650 in the validation cohort). Calibration plots illustrated that the model was capable of being calibrated. These criteria demonstrated that the nomogram outperforms the AJCC staging system alone. Conclusion: The nomogram developed in this study is sufficiently reliable for forecasting the risk and prognosis of SCM, which may facilitate personalized treatment recommendations in upcoming clinical trials.

The Impact of Expert Opinions in COVID-19 News Coverage on Vaccination During the Fifth Outbreak in Hong Kong: A Time Series Analysis.

The role of experts in news coverage has become increasingly prominent, but the evidence regarding the effectiveness of expert opinions in affecting public behavior remains mixed. This study seeks to examine the influence of expert opinions covered in the news on the public's response to public health crises. By adopting a macro-level framing perspective, we investigated how framing consistency, a macro-level concept indicating the agreement between expert opinions in news coverage and government policies or among peer experts, evolves over time and its temporal causal relationship with public behavior. Specifically, this study collected all press news coverage in Hong Kong over four months during the fifth outbreak, including 1,416 articles with 650 expert opinions, as well as the vaccination data that paralleled with this period. We constructed time series of expert opinions and vaccination behavior, and then conducted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models with Granger causality analysis to examine how framing consistency of expert opinions in news coverage influenced vaccination. The results indicate that the consistent framing between expert opinions and government policies increased COVID-19 vaccination during the fifth outbreak in Hong Kong, while conflicting opinions responding to government policies had no significant effect on vaccination. Opinions among medical experts on COVID-19 issues also did not significantly impact vaccination. The implications for designing communication strategies and enhancing public behavioral support during public health crises are discussed.

Hemorrhoidal disease and its genetic association with depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, and schizophrenia: a bidirectional mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhoids and psychiatric disorders exhibit high prevalence rates and a tendency for relapse in epidemiological studies. Despite this, limited research has explored their correlation, and these studies are often subject to reverse causality and residual confounding. We conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to comprehensively investigate the association between several mental illnesses and hemorrhoidal disease. METHODS: Genetic associations for four psychiatric disorders and hemorrhoidal disease were obtained from large consortia, the FinnGen study, and the UK Biobank. Genetic variants associated with depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, and hemorrhoidal disease at the genome-wide significance level were selected as instrumental variables. Screening for potential confounders in genetic instrumental variables using PhenoScanner V2. Bidirectional MR estimates were employed to assess the effects of four psychiatric disorders on hemorrhoidal disease. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed a significant association between genetically predicted depression and the risk of hemorrhoidal disease (IVW, OR=1.20,95% CI=1.09 to 1.33, P <0.001). We found no evidence of associations between bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, schizophrenia, and hemorrhoidal disease. Inverse MR analysis provided evidence for a significant association between genetically predicted hemorrhoidal disease and depression (IVW, OR=1.07,95% CI=1.04 to 1.11, P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study offers MR evidence supporting a bidirectional causal relationship between depression and hemorrhoidal disease.

LiverRisk score: An accurate, cost-effective tool to predict fibrosis, liver-related, and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance and is challenging. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance and cost-effectiveness of the LiverRisk score for liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population. METHODS: The general population from the NHANES 2017-March 2020, NHANES 1999-2018, and UK Biobank 2006-2010 were included in the cross-sectional cohort (n = 3,770), along with the NHANES follow-up cohort (n = 25,317) and the UK Biobank follow-up cohort (n = 17,259). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using TreeAge Pro software. Liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa were defined as compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). FINDINGS: Compared to conventional scores, the LiverRisk score had significantly better accuracy and calibration in predicting liver fibrosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for cACLD. According to the updated thresholds of LiverRisk score (6 and 10), we reclassified the population into three groups: low, medium, and high risk. The AUCs of LiverRisk score for predicting liver-related and diabetes-related mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years were all above 0.8, with better performance than the Fibrosis-4 score. Furthermore, compared to the low-risk group, the medium-risk and high-risk groups in the two follow-up cohorts had a significantly higher risk of liver-related and diabetes-related mortality. Finally, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LiverRisk score compared to FIB-4 was USD $18,170 per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The LiverRisk score is an accurate, cost-effective tool to predict liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82330060, 92059202, and 92359304); the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2023767a); the Fundamental Research Fund of Southeast University (3290002303A2); Changjiang Scholars Talent Cultivation Project of Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University (2023YJXYYRCPY03); and the Research Personnel Cultivation Program of Zhongda Hospital Southeast University (CZXM-GSP-RC125).

Microbiota of pregnancy, placenta and newborns in the third trimester: A randomized controlled study.

Microbiota in pregnant time is vital to healthy of pregnant women and their offspring. However, few study evaluate the composition of the microbiota of health pregnancy, placenta and their newborns at different stages and the origin of the placental microbiota. Samples were obtained from a total of 31 pregnant individuals and their offspring, analyzing by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing of the V4 region to evaluate the composition and variation of them. We found that the microbiota of pregnant individuals changes in the third trimester. The placental microbiota has its own specific dominant microbiota. The placental microbiota is correlated with the pregnancy microbiota in the gut and vagina at 32-34 weeks but not at full term. The gut microbiota in newborns changes over the first 14 days.

Nurses' job preferences on the internet plus nursing service program: a discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: The Internet Plus Nursing Service (IPNS) is being instigated in all provincial-level regions throughout China, in which registered nurses (with more than five years of experience from qualified medical institutions) will provide services to those in their communities or homes after receiving online applications. The growing shortage of human resources in nursing is a critical issue for this project, so effective policies for recruiting and retaining nurses are critical. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to pinpoint the significant job characteristics that play a crucial role in shaping the job decisions of sharing nurses in the IPNS program, and to estimate the strength of job attributes. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was used to assess job attributes influencing sharing nurses' preferences. A qualitative design, including in-depth interview and focus interview methods, was conducted to determine the inclusion of attributes. The final included six attributes were: work modes, duration per visit, income per visit, personal safety, medical risk prevention, and refresher training. This study was conducted at 13 hospitals in Guangdong Province, China, from April to June 2022, and a total of 220 registered sharing nurses participated in the survey. The multinomial logit model explored attributes and relative valued utility. Preference heterogeneity is explored via latent class analysis (LCA) models. RESULTS: A total of 220 participants answered the questionnaire. Income was the most influential characteristic of a sharing nursing position, followed by personal safety management, duration per visit, medical risk prevention, and refresher training, and nurses' preferences differed among different types of classes. CONCLUSIONS: Sharing nurses place most value on income and personal safety with career-related decisions, which indicates an urgent need to develop complete security for personal safety. This study can be helpful to decision-makers in the Chinese government.

How is family health related to health-related quality of life among middle-aged and older adults in rural China? A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is unequal between countries and regions, and the emphasis on HRQOL of populations of low-income countries and regions is unprecedented. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between family health and HRQOL among middle-aged and older adults in rural China, and determine whether this association differs by age, gender and chronic disease subgroup. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey carried out from July to September 2021. The participants were 1059 people aged 46 and over living in rural China. We used the European Quality of Life Five Dimension Five Level (EQ-5D-5L) and Family Health Scale-Short Form (FHS-SF) to assess health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and family health, respectively. RESULTS: The mean EQ-VAS was 75.66, the mean EQ index score was 0.92, and the mean FHS was 37.90 in rural middle-aged and older adults. After Bonferroni correction, generalised linear regression models showed that FHS was significantly associated with the EQ-VAS (ß = 0.829; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.660 to 0.997; p < .001) and the EQ index score (ß = 0.003; 95%CI: 0.001 to 0.004; p < .001). Binary logistic regression models showed that FHS was associated with three dimensions of HRQOL (mobility, self-care and usual activities) (p < .01). Based on subgroup analyses, the effect of FHS on EQ-VAS and the EQ index score was significant in three subgroups after Bonferroni correction (p < .01), but the association between FHS and the dimensions of HRQOL differed by age, gender and chronic disease group (p > .01). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to explore that family health and its dimensions are significant positive predictors of HRQOL among middle-aged and older adults in rural China. Family-based measures may have more potential and value because better family health significantly improves HRQOL. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: In the health strategy, the government and primary health care workers should include family health as an indicator and assess it before and after the implementation of the strategy.

Analysis and prediction of 5-year survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma: a model-based period analysis.

Background: The survival and prognosis of patients are significantly threatened by cutaneous melanoma (CM), which is a highly aggressive disease. It is therefore crucial to determine the most recent survival rate of CM. This study used population-based cancer registry data to examine the 5-year relative survival rate of CM in the US. Methods: Period analysis was used to assess the relative survival rate and trends of patients with CM in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2004-2018. And based on the data stratified by age, gender, race and subtype in the SEER database, a generalized linear model was 12established to predict the 5-year relative survival rate of CM patients from 2019 to 2023. Results: The 5-year relative survival increased to various degrees for both total CM and CM subtypes during the observation period. The improvement was greatest for amelanotic melanoma, increasing from 69.0% to 81.5%. The 5-year overall relative survival rates of CM were 92.9%, 93.5%, and 95.6% for 2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018, respectively. Females had a marginally higher survival rate than males for almost all subtypes, older people had lower survival rates than younger people, white patients had higher survival rates than nonwhite ones, and urban locations had higher rates of survival from CM than rural locations did. The survival rate of CM was significantly lower for distant metastasis. Conclusion: The survival rate of patients with CM gradually improved overall during 2004-2018. With the predicted survival rate of 96.7% for 2019-2023, this trend will still be present. Assessing the changes experienced by patients with CM over the previous 15 years can help in predicting the future course of CM. It also provides a scientific foundation that associated departments can use to develop efficient tumor prevention and control strategies.

Socioeconomic characteristics and domestic work as correlates of family satisfaction in Hong Kong mothers of young children.

BACKGROUND: Family life satisfaction is an important contributor to the mental health of mothers with young children, who are particularly vulnerable to various sources of stressors. However, there is a dearth of studies on this topic in this demographic, the determinants of which likely differ across geographical and cultural contexts. We examined indicators of maternal socioeconomic status (SES) and domestic help as correlates of family satisfaction in Hong Kong mothers of young children. METHODS: Mothers (N = 322) of young children (3-5 years old) were recruited from neighbourhoods stratified by SES and population density. They self-completed a survey containing items on socio-demographics, SES characteristics (including household income and maternal education and employment status), maternal family satisfaction and division of domestic work in the household and family. Confounder-adjusted associations of maternal SES indicators and participation in housework and childcare activities by various agents (e.g., mother, spouse, other residents) were estimated. We also estimated the moderating effects of household income on the associations between maternal employment and family satisfaction, and those of maternal employment on the associations between domestic work division and family satisfaction. RESULTS: Household income and maternal education were positively related to maternal family satisfaction. Mothers in part-time employment had lower family satisfaction than non-working mothers and mothers working full-time. The latter reported higher family satisfaction than non-working mothers only if their household income was below HK$ 15,000. Domestic work performed by non-residents was predictive of higher family satisfaction, while mothers' housework and child(ren) tutoring were predictive of lower family satisfaction. Only part-time employed mothers benefited from spouse's assistance with domestic work. The interaction effects of maternal employment status on the associations between the division of child tutoring and family satisfaction were complex. CONCLUSIONS: In Hong Kong, mothers of young children with lower education and household income, who hold a part-time job and participate in housework and child tutoring activities have the lowest levels of family satisfaction and, hence, are at higher risk of mental health problems. Spouses' and non-resident family members' participation in domestic work, as well as the establishment of more family-friendly employment practices, may help mitigate this risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: N/A.

Deep-learning-based survival prediction of patients with lower limb melanoma.

BACKGROUND: For the purpose to examine lower limb melanoma (LLM) and its long-term survival rate, we used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. To estimate the prognosis of LLM patients and assess its efficacy, we used a powerful deep learning and neural network approach called DeepSurv. METHODS: We gathered data on those who had an LLM diagnosis between 2000 and 2019 from the SEER database. We divided the people into training and testing cohorts at a 7:3 ratio using a random selection technique. To assess the likelihood that LLM patients would survive, we compared the results of the DeepSurv model with those of the Cox proportional-hazards (CoxPH) model. Calibration curves, the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the concordance index (C-index) were all used to assess how accurate the predictions were. RESULTS: In this study, a total of 26,243 LLM patients were enrolled, with 7873 serving as the testing cohort and 18,370 as the training cohort. Significant correlations with age, gender, AJCC stage, chemotherapy status, surgery status, regional lymph node removal and the survival outcomes of LLM patients were found by the CoxPH model. The CoxPH model's C-index was 0.766, which signifies a good degree of predicted accuracy. Additionally, we created the DeepSurv model using the training cohort data, which had a higher C-index of 0.852. In addition to calculating the 3-, 5-, and 8-year AUC values, the predictive performance of both models was evaluated. The equivalent AUC values for the CoxPH model were 0.795, 0.767, and 0.847, respectively. The DeepSurv model, in comparison, had better AUC values of 0.872, 0.858, and 0.847. In comparison to the CoxPH model, the DeepSurv model demonstrated greater prediction performance for LLM patients, as shown by the AUC values and the calibration curve. CONCLUSION: We created the DeepSurv model using LLM patient data from the SEER database, which performed better than the CoxPH model in predicting the survival time of LLM patients.

Chinese university students' preferences for physical activity incentive programs: a discrete choice experiment.

Purpose: This study aims to explore and compare Chinese university students' preferences for various physical activity motivation programs. Patients and methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in China from February 25 to March 25, 2022. Participants anonymously completed an online questionnaire based on a DCE. A total of 1,358 university students participated in the survey. The conditional logit model (CLM), willingness to accept (WTA), and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to assess college students' preferences for different attributes and levels of physical activity incentive programs. Results: Respondents identified the number of bonus, exercise time, and academic rewards as the three most significant attributes of the athletic incentive program. The importance of each attribute varied based on individual characteristics such as gender and BMI. In CLM, college students displayed a preference for a "¥4" bonus amount (OR: 2.04, 95% CI 1.95-2.13), "20 min" of exercise time (OR: 1.85, 95% CI 1.79-1.92), and "bonus points for comprehensive test scores" as academic rewards (OR: 1.33, 95% CI 1.28-1.37). According to the WTA results, college students were willing to accept the highest cost to obtain academic rewards tied to composite test scores. Conclusion: The number of bonus, exercise time, and academic rewards emerge as the three most crucial attributes of physical activity incentive programs. Furthermore, college students with different characteristics exhibit heterogeneity in their preferences for such programs. These findings can guide the development of programs and policies aimed at motivating college students to engage in physical activities.

Change in Mineral Status After Bariatric Surgery: a Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The risk of protein and vitamin deficiencies after bariatric surgery has been well studied, but the change in mineral status has not gotten enough attention. This study aimed to perform a meta-analysis regarding the change in mineral levels after bariatric surgery and the prevalence of postoperative mineral deficiency, with subgroup analyses of different surgical procedures, study regions, and follow-up time. METHODS: CENTRAL, PubMed, and EMBASE were searched for related articles. Meta-analysis, subgroup analysis, and sensitivity analysis were performed if necessary. RESULTS: A total of 107 articles with 47,432 patients were included. The most severe mineral deficiency after bariatric surgery was iron (20.1%), followed by zinc (18.3%), copper (14.4%), chlorine (12.2%), phosphorus (7.5%), and calcium (7.4%). Serum concentrations of potassium, sodium, selenium, manganese, and molybdenum showed no significant change before and after surgery. Subgroup analyses revealed that SG had fewer deficiencies in serum iron, calcium, zinc, magnesium, phosphorus, copper, and selenium than RYGB. OAGB showed a higher incidence of serum iron and zinc deficiencies than RYGB. Studies conducted in different regions also found various mineral statuses after surgery. Studies with follow-up ≥ 5 years had a lower prevalence of zinc, copper, and selenium deficiencies than follow-up < 5 years. CONCLUSION: A high deficiency rate of serum iron, zinc, copper, chlorine, phosphorus, and calcium was seen after bariatric surgery. The difference in surgical procedures, study regions, and follow-up time may affect postoperative mineral status; more targeted mineral supplement programs are needed considering these influencing factors.

Factors associated with eating behaviors in older adults from a socioecological model perspective.

BACKGROUND: The eating behaviors of older adults are associated with multiple factors. To promote older adults' healthy diets, it is imperative to comprehensively study the factors associated with the eating behaviors of the aging population group. This study aimed to probe the associated factors of older adults' eating behaviors from a socioecological model (SEM) perspective. METHODS: In 2021, a cross-sectional survey was performed to recruit participants in China. The survey data were analyzed using a multivariate generalized linear model to identify the factors associated with eating behaviors in older adults. Standardized regression coefficients (ß) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a multivariate generalized linear model. RESULTS: The survey contained 1147 valid older adult participants. Multivariate generalized linear model results showed that older adults with older age [aged 71-80 (ß = -0.61), ≥ 81 (ß = -1.12)], conscientiousness personality trait (ß = -0.27), and higher family health levels (ß = -0.23) were inclined to have better eating behaviors. The older adults with higher education levels [junior high school and high school (ß = 1.03), junior college and above (ß = 1.71)], higher general self-efficacy (ß = 0.09), more severe depression symptoms (ß = 0.24), and employment (ß = 0.82) tended to have poorer eating behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified factors that are specifically associated with older adults' eating behaviors from an SEM perspective. The comprehensive multiple-angle perspective consideration may be a valuable idea for studying healthy eating behaviors in older adults.

Corrigendum to "Inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery in China: results from the National Centre for Cardiovascular Diseases" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 2023; 31:100623].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100623.].

Need assessment for history-taking instruction program using chatbot for nursing students: A qualitative study using focus group interviews.

Purpose: A comprehensive health history contributes to identifying the most appropriate interventions and care priorities. However, history-taking is challenging to learn and develop for most nursing students. Chatbot was suggested by students to be used in history-taking training. Still, there is a lack of clarity regarding the needs of nursing students in these programs. This study aimed to explore nursing students' needs and essential components of chatbot-based history-taking instruction program. Methods: This was a qualitative study. Four focus groups, with a total of 22 nursing students, were recruited. Colaizzi's phenomenological methodology was used to analyze the qualitative data generated from the focus group discussions. Results: Three main themes and 12 subthemes emerged. The main themes included limitations of clinical practice for history-taking, perceptions of chatbot used in history-taking instruction programs, and the need for history-taking instruction programs using chatbot. Students had limitations in clinical practice for history-taking. When developing chatbot-based history-taking instruction programs, the development should reflect students' needs, including feedback from the chatbot system, diverse clinical situations, chances to practice nontechnical skills, a form of chatbot (i.e., humanoid robots or cyborgs), the role of teachers (i.e., sharing experience and providing advice) and training before the clinical practice. Conclusion: Nursing students had limitations in clinical practice for history-taking and high expectations for chatbot-based history-taking instruction programs.

A prognostic nomogram for the cancer-specific survival of white patients with invasive melanoma at BANS sites based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to develop a comprehensive nomogram for the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of white patients with invasive melanoma at back, posterior arm, posterior neck, and posterior scalp (BANS) sites and to determine the validity of the nomogram by comparing it with the conventional American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Methods: This study analyzed the patients with invasive melanoma in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. R software was used to randomly divide the patients into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Multivariable Cox regression was used to identify predictive variables. The new survival nomogram was compared with the AJCC prognosis model using the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discrimination index (IDI), calibration plotting, and decision-curve analysis (DCA). Results: A novel nomogram was established to determine the 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSS probabilities of patients with invasive melanoma. According to the nomogram, the Age at Diagnosis had the greatest influence on CSS in invasive melanoma, followed by Bone Metastasis, AJCC, Stage, Liver Metastasis, Histologic Subtype, Brain Metastasis, Ulceration, and Primary Site. The nomogram had a higher C-index than the AJCC staging system in both the training (0.850 versus 0.799) and validation (0.829 versus 0.783) cohorts. Calibration plotting demonstrated that the model had good calibration ability. The nomogram outperformed the AJCC staging system in terms of AUC, NRI, IDI, and DCA. Conclusion: This was the first study to develop and evaluate a comprehensive nomogram for the CSS of white patients with invasive melanoma at BANS sites using the SEER database. The novel nomogram can assist clinical staff in predicting the 3-, 5-, and 8-year CSS probabilities of patients with invasive melanoma more accurately than can the AJCC staging system.

Global, Regional, and National Prevalence of Gout From 1990 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis With Future Burden Prediction.

BACKGROUND: Gout is a common and debilitating condition that is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite advances in medical treatment, the global burden of gout continues to increase, particularly in high-sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. OBJECTIVE: To address the aforementioned issue, we used age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to analyze global trends in gout incidence and prevalence from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to assess all-age prevalence and age-standardized prevalence rates, as well as years lived with disability rates, for 204 countries and territories. APC effects were also examined in relation to gout prevalence. Future burden prediction was carried out using the Nordpred APC prediction of future incidence cases and the Bayesian APC model. RESULTS: The global gout incidence has increased by 63.44% over the past 2 decades, with a corresponding increase of 51.12% in global years lived with disability. The sex ratio remained consistent at 3:1 (male to female), but the global gout incidence increased in both sexes over time. Notably, the prevalence and incidence of gout were the highest in high-SDI regions (95% uncertainty interval 14.19-20.62), with a growth rate of 94.3%. Gout prevalence increases steadily with age, and the prevalence increases rapidly in high-SDI quantiles for the period effect. Finally, the cohort effect showed that gout prevalence increases steadily, with the risk of morbidity increasing in younger birth cohorts. The prediction model suggests that the gout incidence rate will continue to increase globally. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides important insights into the global burden of gout and highlights the need for effective management and prophylaxis of this condition. The APC model used in our analysis provides a novel approach to understanding the complex trends in gout prevalence and incidence, and our findings can inform the development of targeted interventions to address this growing health issue.

A real-world data validation of the value of early-stage SIR modelling to public health.

Performance of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model in the early stage of a novel epidemic may be hindered by data availability. Additionally, the traditional SIR model may oversimplify the disease progress, and knowledge about the virus and transmission is limited early in the epidemic, resulting in a greater uncertainty of such modelling. We aimed to investigate the impact of model inputs on the early-stage SIR projection using COVID-19 as an illustration to evaluate the application of early infection models. We constructed a modified SIR model using discrete-time Markov chain to simulate daily epidemic dynamics and estimate the number of beds needed in Wuhan in the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic. We compared eight scenarios of SIR projection to the real-world data (RWD) and used root mean square error (RMSE) to assess model performance. According to the National Health Commission, the number of beds occupied in isolation wards and ICUs due to COVID-19 in Wuhan peaked at 37,746. In our model, as the epidemic developed, we observed an increasing daily new case rate, and decreasing daily removal rate and ICU rate. This change in rates contributed to the growth in the needs of bed in both isolation wards and ICUs. Assuming a 50% diagnosis rate and 70% public health efficacy, the model based on parameters estimated using data from the day reaching 3200 to the day reaching 6400 cases returned a lowest RMSE. This model predicted 22,613 beds needed in isolation ward and ICU as on the day of RWD peak. Very early SIR model predictions based on early cumulative case data initially underestimated the number of beds needed, but the RMSEs tended to decline as more updated data were used. Very-early-stage SIR model, although simple but convenient and relatively accurate, is a useful tool to provide decisive information for the public health system and predict the trend of an epidemic of novel infectious disease in the very early stage, thus, avoiding the issue of delay-decision and extra deaths.

Levels and Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccination at a Later Phase among Chinese Older People Aged 60 Years or Older: A Population-Based Survey.

The early attainment of high COVID-19 vaccination rates can minimize avoidable hospitalizations/deaths. The fifth wave COVID-19 outbreak in Hong Kong caused >9000 deaths, and most of them were unvaccinated older people. This study hence investigated determinants of taking the first dose vaccination at a later phase (Phase 3: during the fifth wave outbreak, i.e., February-July 2022) versus two earlier phases (Phase 1: first six months since vaccine rollout, i.e., February-July 2021; Phase 2: six months prior to the outbreak, i.e., August 2021-January 2022) via a random telephone survey among 386 ever-vaccinated Hong Kong older people aged ≥60 (June/July 2022). A total of 27.7%, 51.1%, and 21.3% took the first dose at Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 3, respectively. Unfavorable perceptions related to COVID-19/vaccination, exposure to conflicting/counter-information about the suitability of older people's vaccination from various sources, unsupportive family influences prior to the outbreak, and depressive symptoms were significantly associated with taking the first dose at Phase 3 instead of Phase 1 and Phase 2. To speed up COVID-19 vaccination and avoid unnecessary deaths, the government and health professionals should rectify misinformation, provide clear/consistent information for older people and their family members, and focus on those having depressive symptoms at an earlier stage of the pandemic.